epl-lpp: EPL Match Prediction
A Poisson regression model for predicting English Premier League match scores, learning team attack strength and defensive weakness from historical match data.
Overview
A Poisson regression model for predicting English Premier League match scores. The model learns team attack strength and defensive weakness from historical match data.
How It Works
The model uses a Poisson GLM with the following structure:
Home Goals ~ HomeTeam + AwayTeam + Positions + Rolling Stats
Away Goals ~ AwayTeam + HomeTeam + Positions + Rolling Stats- HomeTeam effect → Attack strength of the home team
- AwayTeam effect → Defensive weakness when facing that opponent
- Positions → Current league standings
- Rolling Stats → Goals, shots, shots on target (last 5 games)
Features
- Rolling averages for goals scored/conceded
- Rolling averages for shots and shots on target
- Dynamic league position calculation
- Trained on all current season games