Premier League Predictions
🔮 Current Matchday #24
🔍 Click row for heatmap
| Match | Pred | H/D/A % | Actual | Date |
|---|
📊 Last Matchday #23
| Match | Pred | H/D/A % | Actual |
|---|
📈 How It Works
Our Poisson regression model predicts expected goals (xG) for each team. The H/D/A % shows the probability of Home Win / Draw / Away Win based on the Poisson distribution. Click any current matchday row to see the detailed scoreline probability heatmap.
⚽ Model Features
- Team Attack Strength: How many goals a team typically scores
- Team Defensive Weakness: How many goals they typically concede
- League Position: Current standings in the table
- Rolling Stats: Goals, shots, and shots on target (last 5 games)
- Home Advantage: Teams perform better at home on average
📊 Understanding xG
Expected Goals (xG) represents the average number of goals a team would score given the match conditions. Since we use a Poisson distribution, xG is never exactly 0 - even weak teams have some probability of scoring. The probability heatmap shows the likelihood of each specific scoreline (e.g., 1-0, 2-1, etc.).
⚠️ This is an experimental project for learning purposes. Predictions are not guaranteed to be accurate.